Creighton is going to be one of the last four teams in, or the last four teams out. Its very close, and depending on which prediction you believe, they're barely in or barely out. Fortunately, the decision has already been made. Unfortunately, we won't find out until 5 PM.
When those brackets are revealed, there are four teams Jays fans do not want to see. If one of the group consisting of Penn State, Auburn, Florida and Arizona shows up, its an ominous sign. If two of that group show up, its curtains. Either scenario means the Selection Committee valued # of wins over RPI Top 50/Top 100 teams rather than winning percentage, and probably overall Strength of Schedule. Both of those stats inherently reward BCS teams, and hurt Mid-Majors.
There are three additional teams Jays fans don't want to see, at least not until Creighton's name has been revealed: San Diego State, Saint Mary's, and Maryland are all bubble teams that probably are grouped around Creighton. These teams getting a bid gives us no insight into the motives of the committee, but each team from this group that gets in leaves one fewer spot for Creighton to take.
We pretty much know who the "last" bubble teams are. The higher they're seeded, the narrower the bubble. Watching where they get seeded, if they get in, will also give us an indication as to the Jays' fate. If Big Ten bubble teams Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin not only get in but get single-digit seeds, its bad news for Creighton. And if mid-majors we know will be getting bids such as Xavier, Dayton and Utah are seeded 8 or lower, that's also bad news for the Jays.
The Selection Committee chairman told CBS this morning that the field is already decided on, and that seeding those 64 teams is all that remains. I believe that's true, and that they also know which team will be removed from the board should Mississippi State win the SEC title and steal a bid.
Is Creighton one of those teams that is in? If you like reading between the lines and believing conspiracy theories, ESPN has been giving us a lot to chew on today. Internet rumors have been around for years that Joe Lunardi has inside information on Selection Sunday -- his incredible reputation for being correct is based on his last posted bracket, which always goes up an hour before the brackets are revealed. Almost every year, he has one or two suspicious changes in that last bracket that seem to indicate some kind of insider info.
Based on ESPN's arguments today, I think they already have that info. They attacked Creighton and defended Arizona to an unbelievable degree. While barely mentioning Maryland, Penn State and San Diego State, they spent an entire segment attempting to assassinate the Creighton resume while pumping false life into Arizona's. Why do that?
Joe Lunardi got his insider info as the bracket was completed last night, and ESPN knows who's in and who's out. They're making Creighton the poster child for Mid-Major at-large bids, and Arizona the poster child for BCS snubs.
Of course, this is all speculation. A few hours from now, it will all be moot and we'll know for sure whether we'll be preparing excuses to get out of work Thursday/Friday for a game, or whether we'll be waiting in line at Morrison Stadium for *** tickets.
You bet.
