Its Wednesday of Bubble Week, and the tension mounts every day as Creighton sits on the sidelines, their season over. Have they done enough? Is their last impression a damning indictment? Was the 11 game winning streak that preceded it a better indication of their achievements? Does being co-champion of the ninth best league in America overrule any other potential roadblocks?
In other words, Creighton is squarely on the bubble. They're not close to it, nor looking at it in the rearview mirror -- they are smack dab on top of the damn thing. St. Mary's losing by 20+ on Monday night was a boost. Butler losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon Championship was a setback. Cleveland State wasn't getting in without that auto bid, while Butler now takes one of the few remaining at-large bids away from bubble teams.
Still, the Jays have been, and they still are, on the bubble.
I don't understand the Danny and Debbie Downers who keep slapping their mostly unwelcome commentary into my virtual face on Twitter and Facebook. You know these folks; they're the ones who've been preaching "NIT" since mid-February, happily dropping a turd into the winning streak punchbowl by saying "I'd rather win three straight in St. Louis than 10 straight in February! Na ha ha, look at how real I keep it!"
I also don't understand the Ronnie and Regina Realists who, after seeing Butler take a dump last night, are proclaiming that the Jays better start preparing for an NIT game. Honest to mini donuts, I had a guy send me a message on Facebook this morning asking when NIT tickets went on sale. When I told him to get away before I laid some virtual smack down on his virtual ass, he told me I wasn't being realistic about the Jays chances and that it would "behoove" me to accept their fate sooner rather than later. Behoove? Who uses that word? I possess the vocabulary of a Rhodes Scholar trapped in the brain of an idiot, and I don't even use the word "behoove". But I digress.
Here's the thing. If you take a wide-angle view of the bracket projections that are out there, the Jays fall in one of three categories: safely in, barely in, or barely out. There isn't a projection out there -- not even the potentially insane Jerry Palm -- who say the Jays are eliminated. Until the day when they are eliminated, "NIT" is and will remain a three-letter swear word around these parts. Na ha ha, look at how real I keep it!
The thing people seem to forget when they say that Creighton has "not enough great wins" or "has too many bad losses" or "played a weak schedule" is that you can make those vague arguments about EVERY TEAM ON THE BUBBLE. That's why they're on the bubble in the first place! Every team Creighton is competing against for an at-large spot has largely the same deficiencies in their resumes.
Who are those teams? According to Joe Lunardi, the teams directly in front of Creighton on the S-Curve are: Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Carolina, Penn State, Arizona, and San Diego State. Likewise, the teams directly behind the Jays are Saint Mary's, Florida, Miami, Davidson, Maryland, Providence, Temple, Virginia Tech, and Kentucky. THAT'S their competition.
I challenge you to sit there with a straight face and tell me, without a shadow of a doubt, that those surrounding teams are clearly better teams with better resumes. You can't do it. That's not to say the committee won't pick them over the Jays, because they might. But to sit here on Wednesday and say the Jays are DEFINITELY out so we'd better have a couple less beers this weekend and save that money for NIT tickets is PATENTLY ABSURD. It wouldn't be any more absurd if you went out in the street with your underwear on your head and yelled it to me via megaphone.
Cleveland State winning hurts, obviously. Them winning takes two bids off the board -- themselves and Butler, who will certainly take an at-large bid.
Positives:
St. Mary's was a team that was ahead of the Jays in most projections despite having a worse overall resume and a questionably healthy star player, and they got annihilated on primetime national TV. That's a plus.
Cincinnati was a team, despite not being around the bubble on Lunardi's S-Curve, that was still getting people talking about them for an at-large bid (and by people I mean Digger Phelps). Their atrocious loss to DePaul yesterday eliminates them from any further discussion. Sorry, bud.
Georgetown was slightly ahead of the Jays in many projections despite, again, being nowhere to be found on the S-Curve. Never fear, their first-round Big East loss more than likely eliminates them from the bubble, even on Digger's projection. Another plus.
Penn State and Michigan may very well lose tomorrow in the Big Ten tournament, which would eliminate them. According to my Grampa in Minnesota, who follows the Gophers more intently than I follow the Jays (is that even possible?), none of those three teams will win a single game in Indianapolis. That scenario coming true frees up space on the bubble.
The rest of the teams are far from shoo-ins to make noise this weekend. But keep an eye on them. I'll update this Negatives/Positives list tomorrow with any additions we can safely add.
The Bottom Line:
Come Sunday, there are going to be about 15 teams vying for about 8 spots. As of today, Creighton's resume looks pretty good compared to almost all of the teams either right in front of or right behind them in line. Many of them have conference tournament games still to play; if they drop out early, Creighton's stock will rise, and if they go on a run, Creighton's stock goes down.
No one will really know for sure until Sunday around dinner time whether Creighton is in. I can't sit here and tell you the Jays should feel good about their chances any more than you can sit there and tell me to save my cash for an NIT home game next week. That's the hell of leaving your fate in someone else's hands.
You bet.
