I've been racking my brain all day, and I can't recall the Jays ever playing so poorly in a game that mattered so much, at least in the DA era. For a team so reliant on jump shots for success, shooting 27% tells you a great deal about what the final score wound up being. For some perspective, that's the worst shooting percentage in a game since a February, 2001 game against Evansville.
Creighton missed layups. They missed mid-range jumpers. They missed three-pointers. Mostly, they missed.
Was it a hangover from the previous night's near-catastrophic collapse? I hate to say so, but man, that sure looked to me like a team playing with no confidence. Think about the reality of blowing a 16-point lead in the last four minutes of the game. How can that NOT be in the back of your mind? These guys are human, after all. On the opening tip, one of the Jays (I forget who, but its not important) fell down, and Champ "Don't Call me Chamberlain" Oguchi drains a wide-open three. You think doubt, even a subtle amount, doesn't creep in?
Maybe it didn't. I don't know. But I wouldn't blame them if it did.
Defensively, the effort was acceptably solid. I know you're going to think I'm crazy, because Illinois State shot 13-19 from long range, but sometimes when a team hits shots its unfair to blame the defense. Sometimes a team hits shots because they're good, or because they're hot. When a team that IS good IS hot, watch out. Because so many people are likely going to apocalyptically negative, I'm going to call out the players who I thought played with outstanding effort defensively instead. Deal with it.
Josh Dotzler, Justin Carter, Kenny Lawson, Kenton Walker, Chad Millard, Booker Woodfox, Antoine Young.
That's seven guys, or most of the guys who get the bulk of the playing time. You might be surprised to read that I thought the defensive effort was pretty good, but I think its important to remember that a couple of guys having a bad day can overshadow the rest because its so blatantly obvious.
There are a couple of guys missing from that list, and yeah, they didn't have their greatest days on Saturday. One of them spent a good portion of the day pouting and on the bench, and the other spent a good portion of the day getting beat on defense. But the Jays wouldn't have 26 wins nor would they be in position to be in the NCAA Tourney discussion without both of those players. Remember that before you rip them. Please.
With the high level Illinois State was playing at, unfortunately, it can be tempting to say its bad defense. We've all seen games where the Jays have played ole defense, and I've called them on it when they have. I'm here to tell you this was not one of those games. Illinois State is talented and they were hot. It happens. If you can shoot well, you can keep up. If you shoot 27%, you get blown out. It sucks, but it happens.
In my opinion -- I could be wrong (and probably am) -- this game was the result of four factors that combined together to make a lethal result.
1) Illinois State has won four of the last five games vs Creighton, none of which were particularly competitive;
2) Creighton had a "Final Destination" game on Friday, cheating death after a historic collapse;
3) The Jays consequently lost their mojo; when Illinois State started out hot, doubt set in;
4) When shots didn't fall early and Illinois State got out to a huge lead, the Jays began playing too fast, got out of sync and were never able to right the ship.
In other words, this particular group of Redbird players has OWNED this particular group of Jays players, and both sides know this. So the Jays had that working against them mentally, and when you combine that with Friday night's collapse, when they started out slowly the game was, for all intents and purposes, over.
(Incidentally, I like that moniker...a Final Destination game. If you recall from that awful movie, after people cheated death, their ultimate demise was a million times worse that it was initially going to be. Instead of blowing a 16-point lead, they cheated death and wound up getting their asses summarily handed to them the next day.)
Creighton played as poorly as they could possibly play. Their opponent played about as well as they could possibly play. Sometimes, the Jays can still prevail in such a scenario. Against some teams, they might lose a tight game in such a scenario. Against Illinois State, they will get blown out by 20+ in such a scenario EVERY DAMN TIME.
Where do they go from here? That depends on whether you put more stock in four months of work, or in last impressions. If you believe in resumes, 26 wins, a Top 40 RPI, a 3-2 record against the Top 50, 10 wins against the Top 100 and an 11-1 record in their last 12 games leave the Jays with an awfully good argument for an at-large bid. If you believe in last impressions, the Jays 73-49 loss on Saturday undoubtedly puts them in the NIT. And if your belief falls somewhere in the middle, it leaves the Jays as a bubble team, dependent on others to lose for them to get a bid.
That latter scenario is where I tend to fall. And that's the worst part of Saturday's loss: the Jays controlled their own destiny. Win and they pretty much clinch an at-large bid. By losing, they need help from a bunch of other teams in the next seven days. That's a horribly maddening place to be, because there's not a damn thing you can do at this point to help yourself. You must hope other teams crap themselves without wearing "Oops, I Crapped My Pants."
Tomorrow, we'll look at who we need to be (metaphorically) buying Mini-Donuts for to weigh them down so they lose. Until then, remember that only four teams with 26 wins have missed the tournament, and no team with 26 wins in a Top 10 league have ever been left out. Its not much to hold on to, but its something. Be positive, eat some mini donuts, drink some Pabst Blue Ribbon, and Go Jays.
You bet.
