I'm convinced that Sunday's game will mark a turning point in the season. As the calendar turned to February, the team played with a zest that we haven't seen since December. They were tough, they were in position for tough rebounds and actually got them, they had great movement on offense, and once they started hitting shots, they blew Missouri State out of the gym.
The catalyst for this stunning transformation was Justin Carter who, 23 games into his Creighton career, is starting to prove that all of the wonderful things said about him over the summer are true. When he was on the court, there wasn't one loose ball he wasn't flying after. Not one. For the entire time he was on the floor.
In the second half, he even had a mid-court steal that led to a fast break dunk. This was old-skool stuff -- a strong, bad ass, authoritative one handed dunk -- followed by him sprinting back down the court to play defense. He didn't do any celebratory nonsense to draw attention to himself, he just matter-of-factly dunked the damn ball and then got back on defense. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate histrionics as much as the next guy in the 18-34 demo, but there's just something about a dude who appreciates defense.
Carter's game is all business. Understated, no-nonsense, hard-working for every second he's on the floor. Combine those attributes with the obvious abundance of talent he possesses, and you get a guy who is quickly becoming the Jays best all-around player. Combine those attributes with the possibility of other players bringing their games up a notch defensively to match his intensity, and you get a guy who is quickly becoming the Jays leader.
Yes, the leader that this rudderless team has so desperately needed on the court all season long. The guy whose intensity inspires everyone around him to play harder. I believe the junior college transfer is becoming all of those things.
Sure, Missouri State is one of the worst teams in the Valley, but statistically, they're a good defensive team that rebounds fairly well. They're not very athletic, not very deep, and don't have a lot of offensive weapons, all contributing factors to their bad record. So the Jays complete and thorough domination in the "toughness" category is not something that is a product of inferior competition, at least not entirely.
Remember the games against Evansville and Bradley where the Jays looked so good? Missouri State, in my mind, is tougher defensively and in the post than either of those very good teams, so this game is much more encouraging going forward than those two games.
Beyond what we saw with our eyes on Sunday are two other facts -- not feelings, facts -- that should also give Jays fans cause for optimism. One, its now February, which is where the Jays under Dana Altman make their runs; Sunday's encouraging effort came on February 1. And two, it traditionally takes junior college players around 20 games to get comfortable in Altman's system. The list of players who came in and initially struggled, only to be written off by fair-weather fans before turning into superb players is a long one.
If Carter has indeed figured out D1 ball and specifically Altman's style, then the Jays are indeed set to make another February run. I see him as the key player on this team -- not P'Allen Stinnett, not Kenny Lawson, not Kenton Walker -- if he continues to grow into the leader this team needs, a great month-plus of basketball lies ahead of us.
*****
The schedule down the home stretch can't be classified as "favorable", but it ain't bad either. With eight games to play, four of them are at home. I'd peg five of those games as "should win", and three of them as "50-50" games that could go either way. Win the five they should, steal one or two of the others, and all of a sudden the team has 23 or 24 wins heading into St. Louis, probably with the 2 seed.
Two of the road games are this week against struggling Drake and first-place Northern Iowa. The first should be a win; the second is one of those 50/50 games. If they sweep these two, the rest of the schedule begins to look VERY encouraging for securing the #2 seed in St. Louis. And I think they will win both games. This scenario gets them to 19-6 overall, 9-4 in the league.
Then they come home to play Bradley, who the Jays handled in Peoria. A tough game but the Braves won't win in Omaha. A game on Valentines Day in Carbondale follows, but with Bryan Mullins potentially out for the season AND the Salukis down to just 8 scholarship players, an already struggling team is on life support. Talk about lucky breaks! The Jays might actually be in decent position to pick up a rare win in Carbondale. Get those two wins, and they're 21-6, 11-4 in the league.
A home tilt with Evansville is next, a team the Jays beat up on in their first meeting. Like the Bradley game, this will be competitive, but by this time the Jays ought to be confident and riding high -- and get a win. Going into Bracket Buster Saturday against George Mason, the Jays will be 22-6, 12-4 in the league. You heard it here first.
A mid-week road game in Springfield rounds out the away schedule, and given the Bears struggles, this is a winnable game too. The way I see it, the Jays will be 24-6 and 13-4 heading into the final showdown with Illinois State -- or, if they drop the UNI game (which I could see), 23-7 and 12-5 in the league.
I hope for the sake of all that is good and decent in the world that the Jays are sick and tired of getting their asses summarily handed to them by the Redbirds. What better way to say ENOUGH than to dispatch them on Senior Night?
I'm convinced this team will be no worse than 23-8 heading into St. Louis, with no worse than a 13-5 record in the MVC. I've bet a six pack of Bud Light in those cool aluminum bottles to my brother that they will be.
You bet.
