At the game on Saturday, I was pounding Diet Pepsis because it was an afternoon game and I had a long drive ahead of me following the end. This afforded me the sort of mental clarity that I do not always possess during and particularly after games.
The people sitting next to me were attending their first game of the year, a dad and his kids. In talking to the dad at halftime, he mentioned that the guards were taking an inordinate number of threes -- even more than CU usually does. This got me to thinking. Why is that?
Post play, or lack thereof, is putting a ton of pressure on the guards. It hadn't occurred to me to express it that way before, but it makes a lot of sense. The Jays have ZERO presence in the paint, specifically from their post players, on either end of the floor. Whoever happens to be playing the post gets pushed out of the way for positioning and, as a result, rebounds. Further, defenses NEVER have to double-down on the post, because those players just aren't a big enough threat to score. With the defense going man-to-man on the post, that allows their power forward to concentrate on limiting dribble penetration by the guards, pushing them further and further from the basket until they're settling for jump shots.
Sometimes, jump shots fall. Sometimes they don't. In the games when they do, the Jays look really good, because their shooting percentage disguises what's really going on. That's why Dana Altman has been saying all year, even after blowout wins, that the team has "a long ways to go" and that "they have to get better."
It would be bad enough if the post players were simply inconsistent offensively. But they're worse than that: they're a black hole when they have the ball. What do I mean by that? One of three things happens when they catch it:
1) They shoot and make it
2) They shoot and miss it, and generally won't be in position to rebound their own miss
3) They look to seal off the defender, but aren't strong enough so the defender breaks the seal, knocks the ball loose, and starts a fast break the other way
If Option One happened 75% of the time, you could live with with Two and Three. That's where the Jays have been in the past, and its where most teams they play are right now. Instead, Option One happens about half the time, making it a 50/50 proposition when the guards pass it inside. Furthermore, it seems like when the guards do manage to get dribble penetration and dish it to the post player, more often than not the ball hits their hands, bounces away, and is turned over.
On the Big Show with Matt Perrault last Friday, former Bluejay Nick Bahe said if he was playing he would hesitate to pass the ball inside to the post because if the player doesn't hold the seal and turns it over, guess who the turnover goes to? The guard. Or for the more team-oriented guard, its simply a turnover on the Jays. Either way, if a former Jays guard feels that way, a guy who played just last year mind you, doesn't it make you wonder if the current crop of guards feels the same way?
Anecdotally, I believe they do, if only subconsciously. Most games, they start out trying to get the ball inside, probably because they've been coached to do so. After a few failed possessions, they gradually start ignoring the post until they're jacking up 35 three point attempts a game. Once they lose confidence in the post play in a game, the guards try to do too much, thinking they have to create offense themselves. This is what leads to the stupid shots, sloppy turnovers and excessive dribbling that many fans have griped about all season.
That's also why the Jays looked SO GOOD against Evansville and Bradley: those teams have similar post problems, and the Jays took advantage. The offense ran smoother, the rebounding was better, everything ran the way it was supposed to. Unfortunately, against everyone else, the problems in the post leave the Jays as a jump shot team. When they make shots, they win. When they don't, they lose. Things are usually not that simple, but with this particular team, that's what it boils down to.
Folks, this isn't a coaching problem, at least not an X's and O's coaching problem. Blame the coaches for recruiting 10 guards and 2 post players, but not for actual coaching.
They're an outside shooting team, for better or worse. I encourage you to hope with me that they'll get hot and start a streak of wins. They can do it, and it can start tonight.
You bet.
PREDICTION: Jays 76, Sycamores 71
