Yesterday, I published Part II of my three-part MVC Preview with the teams I envision will be looking to make a move for the top of the standings -- teams 6-3 in the final standings. Today, I'll look at the teams I think will be fighting for Valley Supremacy come March.
After the jump...The Big Two.
2. Southern Illinois
Some people questioned my sanity when I picked Illinois State to finish third. Two replies: A, these people are pretty smart because they figured by process of elimination that by placing ISU Red third, that meant Southern Illinois was in the top two; and B, I probably am insane for making that pick. I don't know why I did it.
Actually, that's kind of a misleading thing for me to write, because I do know. So give me a few paragraphs to convince you why I think SIU will finish second this year instead of ISU Red.
Last year, the Salukis entered conference play a .500 club, uncharacteristic for the Valley's standard bearer the last six years. All of the numbers, objective or otherwise, point to SIU being the best team in the Valley over that stretch -- Wins, Conference Titles, NCAA Tournament wins, head-to-head matchups against other top teams in the league, etc. Eventually, teams that have dominated for a period of time have a down year, and get paid back for all the whuppin's they put on teams.
That year was last year for SIU. Thing is, they still managed to finish 11-7 in the league, good for third place, and if not for that rocky non-conference start, might have snuck into the Big Dance again. As it was, their "down" year was an 18-15 campaign that ended in the NIT.
One thing that record seems to have done is make the Salukis focus on getting back to basic SIU basketball: pushing defense to the limits of the rules, and sometimes beyond. Their intimidating, Macho Man defense was strangely absent for most of last year, particularly in their game in Omaha.
Put together an "All-Nemesis" team from the last decade, and Randal Falker and Matt Shaw would receive heavy consideration for a roster spot. Someone should put such a list together; maybe I'll do it, who knows. I'll even get you started: Brad Korn should be on there, as should Jamar Howard, Rico Hill, and Michael Menser.
The good news for the Jays is that Falker and Shaw have used up their eligibility. The bad news is that Bryan Mullins has not. You remember Bryan Mullins, don't you? The guy that hit the game-winner in the 58-57 SIU win two years ago in Omaha, in the game where Watts and Tolliver both fouled out, and Pierce Hibma -- PIERCE HIBMA! -- had to play defense on Randal Falker for the last three minutes of the game? Yeah, that guy. He's back.
Mullins has made the All-Defensive Team every year he's been at SIU, and last year he won MVC Defensive Player of the Year. Not surprisingly, this is an award that SIU has absolutely owned in recent years, and Mullins is just the latest in a long line of great Saluki defenders. In fact, he's the fourth Saluki to win the award in the last six years.
By the end of the year, the senior point guard has an excellent chance to be the school's all-time leader in both assists and steals. Having a senior point guard is a big plus for Chris Lowery, as he tries to break in what is being called the best recruiting class in SIU history.
If SIU can find consistent frontcourt play to pull down tough rebounds and anchor their defense, I will look like a damn genius for picking them second in the league. That's how much I think of Mullins as a floor general and as an example for their young players to emulate. If their young frontcourt players don't play well, SIU could easily see a similar record to what they had last year -- and a similar postseason result. But don't count on it.
What to watch for: A non-conference slate heavy on similar schools won't turn any heads nationally, but its a solid (if unspectacular) slate. Western Kentucky, St. Louis, Saint Mary's, Charlotte, Nevada and Western Michigan are the highlights, and should provide a pretty good mix of tough-yet-winnable games to get the young Salukis ready for the Valley.
Versus Creighton: 1/14 in Omaha, 2/14 in Carbondale
Prognosis: 20-8, 12-6 in the MVC, NCAA Tournament
1. Creighton
In 2007-08, the Jays went through a rebuilding year, which speaks volumes about where the program is at, considering they finished 22-11 and 10-8 in the league. 22 wins and double-digit victories in the conference is a rebuilding year?
Depends where you've been, and where you plan on going. And if you're Dana Altman and the Jays, they've been to the precipice of big-time success on a national level, and along with SIU are the elite programs in the Valley over the last decade. When your goals are to advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament and beyond, 22 wins is a rebuilding year.
When you lose 75% of your offensive production, including three of the best players of the Altman era in Nate Funk, Anthony Tolliver and Nick Porter -- and you still manage to win 22 games, the case could be made it wasn't really a rebuilding year at all, but merely reloading.
It has to be a scary thought for the rest of the league that those nine new players contributed mightily to the Jays' success a year ago, and all of them return a year older, a year bigger and a year hungrier. Five of those nine players earned MVC Newcomer of the Week honors at some point during the season. Think about that for a second. Five of the nine new guys were, at some point, the best newcomer in the entire league!
They lose leading rebounder and team leader Dane Watts, and leading intangible guys Nick Bahe and Pierce Hibma. Everyone else is back. What a frightening proposition.
In the backcourt, senior Josh Dotzler finally hopes to be healed from the rash of injuries that have sidetracked his once-promising career ever since the SIU game in Omaha his Freshman year. He'll likely get the starting nod at least initially, but if he falters, offensive stud Cavel Witter can ably step in. Witter struggled early to pick up the offense, but became nearly unstoppable down the stretch, scoring 42 points in a double-OT 111-110 win over Bradley on Senior Night and scoring the game-winner against Rhode Island in the first round of the NIT.
Valley Freshman of the Year P'Allen Stinnett averaged almost 13 points as a freshman, and is one of the most dynamic players in the entire league. Valley Sixth Man of the Year Booker Woodfox has a deadly touch from long range, and provided a spark off the bench.
As it will for SIU, the Jays' season hinges on frontcourt play and specifically, on rebounding. Even with the senior Watts a year ago, rebounding (or lack thereof) was the Jays' Achilles Heel. Its up to sophomores Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker to ease those concerns. Lawson reportedly has hit the weights and is poised to be a dominant post force for the next three years.
Stinnett has the chance to be the Next Great Bluejay, and is certainly the most explosive around-the-rim player since Sir Rodney Buford was dunking on people almost ten years ago. Witter and Woodfox should continue to be explosive guards off the bench. Lawson looks poised to control the paint, and Chad Millard and Casey Harriman give the Jays solid options at forward. At this point, the Jays have the most talent in the league, the dean of Valley coaches, the best arena and largest season ticket base. If ever there was a year to make the leap across the precipice of big time success on a national stage, this is it.
What to watch for: The normally-deadly road swing through Illinois comes early in the season this year, as the Jays play MVC games 2 and 3 at Indiana State and Illinois State, respectively. But the real key for the Jays won't be the games against the better teams of the league. The key is to beat Missouri State, Wichita State and Evansville -- in other words, not tripping over yourself against teams you're supposed to beat. Every year, the Jays lose a game to a lower-tier team, and every year, it costs them. Some years, its cost them a Valley Regular Season crown. That shouldn't, and can't, happen this year.
Prognosis: 26-5, 14-4 in the MVC, NCAA Tournament
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