Yesterday, I kicked off my three-part MVC Preview with the teams I envision will be playing the play-in games on Thursday night in St. Louis -- teams 7-10 in the final standings. Today, I'll look at the teams looking to make a move in the conference, those that I predict will finish 4-6 come March.
After the jump...The Barry Hinson Memorial Division for 2008-09.
THE BARRY HINSON DIVISION
6. Northern Iowa
Confession: I originally had the Panthers had pegged for third place in the Valley, but that was before practice started and practically everyone on the team got hurt. Former Iowa guard Carlton Reed has a severe knee injury and is likely out for the year. Point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe missed all of last year with a shoulder injury and is still recovering.
Freshman John Moran -- brought in as insurance in case Ahelegbe isn't fully recovered -- is nursing an ankle injury of his own. 7-1 junior Jordan Eglseder is the top returning scorer, despite being slowed the last month of last season with back and ankle injuries and having a knee scoped over the summer. Once practice started, Eglseder suffered another ankle injury.
Key contributor Lucas O'Rear, described as the emotional leader of the team by coach Ben Jacobson, is suspended for the first three games after an arrest over the summer. Add it all up and what looked to me like a third place team is suddenly very vulnerable.
My original draft of this post said of the Panthers, "Bradley, Drake and Northern Iowa are all very close talent-wise, and any of the three can conceivably make a charge at the leaders. But while Bradley and Drake lost key pieces to their success from last year, UNI returns 7 of their top 10 scorers, they get their starting point guard back after losing him all of last year to injury, and they've added depth at that position should Ahelegbe falter. The Panthers will be better than both Drake and Bradley come March, and will challenge for a postseason berth."
All of that is still true, provided the injuries don't cost key contributors major minutes -- or games.
What to watch for: The Panthers can help their resume early with big games against Marquette, Auburn, San Diego State, Iowa State and Iowa before the MVC season begins. Obviously, they need to get healthy; if they don't, things could go sour quickly. If they do, don't be surprised if they make a run and pass up both Bradley and Drake in the final standings.
Versus Creighton: 1/6 in Omaha, 2/8 in Cedar Falls
Prognosis: Ehhhh, this one is tough. At full strength, I'll go with 22-7 and 13-5 in the MVC. If the injuries to Ahelegbe, Eglseder et al keep them out of a good portion of the schedule, the Panthers could slide to a .500 club.
5. Bradley
Other than Drake, Bradley may have the most to replace going into 2008-09. Leaders Daniel Ruffin, Jeremy Crouch and Matt Salley are all gone from a 21 win team that advanced to the finals of the CBI Tournament last March. Coach Jim Les took over six years ago and inherited a mess from former coach Jim Molinari. In his fourth year, Les guided the Braves to the Sweet 16 and the cover of Sports Illustrated. In year five, the Braves slipped into an NIT berth, advancing to the second round. And in year six, they slipped further, spurning the NIT for the upstart CBI Tournament.
Crouch, in particular, was a thorn in the Jays side for years, and no one in Omaha is sad that he's used up his eligibility. Crouch scored 64 points in three games against the Jays last year, including shooting 13-29 from behind the arc. But Ruffin, too, played well against Creighton, never more so than in the double-overtime thriller in Omaha where he drained in 30 points, grabbed 8 boards and dished out 7 assists in 48 minutes. Again, the Jays won't be sad to no longer have to play against him.
Going into year seven, with Ruffin, Crouch and Salley gone, you might think the Braves are poised to drop further. Not so fast, my friend. The Braves' decision to spurn the NIT for the CBI gave them the opportunity to play six post-season games, and the younger players that will make up the bulk of the 08-09 roster got invaluable experience in competitive contests against good teams.
Andrew Warren, a 6-5 junior who was injured for most of the season and didn't play at all in St. Louis, was one of the Braves most indispensable weapons in the postseason. Warren averaged nearly 14 points per game in the CBI, and made 17 of 30 from behind the arc.
Likewise, sophomore point guard Sam Maniscalco earned minutes in the postseason after ably filling in for Daniel Ruffin both during his injury early in the season and during his suspension late in the season. Starting 15 games, Maniscalco averaged 10 points and 4 assists a game. A first-team all-freshman team selection as well as all-newcomer team member, Maniscalco will run the point for the Braves this year.
The Braves had a second member of the all-newcomer team, as well -- junior college transfer Theron Wilson. Wilson came up huge against the Jays a year ago, including a double-double in the 2OT game in Omaha where he scored 24 points and grabbed 11 boards. In the MVC Tournament Quarterfinals, where the Jays' defense largely neutralized Ruffin and Crouch, they still had no answer for Wilson, who had 21 points, 8 boards, and 3 assists.
Bradley has enough talent to be on the fringe of the Valley contenders all year, and with a few breaks could move up into a top-four seed in St. Louis. Make no mistake: the Braves are still a dangerous team, even without Ruffin, Crouch and Salley.
What to watch for: Three of Bradley's first five games come against some pretty powerful teams: road games at Florida and Michigan State, and a home game with Butler. If the Braves can pull off an upset or two, they'll not only help out the cumulative conference RPI, they'll show can be a force to be reckoned with come March.
Versus Creighton: 1/10 in Peoria, 2/11 in Omaha
Prognosis: 18-10, 9-7 in the MVC, NIT berth
4. Drake
After going 37 years between NCAA Tournament appearances, the Drake Bulldogs smashed through the Valley en route to a 28-5 season, a 15-3 conference record and an overtime loss to Western Kentucky in the NCAA's. They picked a fortuitous time for a breakthrough, with in-state rivals Iowa and Iowa State having teams that were damn near unwatchable.
With a rejuvenated fan base, unprecedented television exposure and recent success to pitch to recruits, everything ought to be swell in Des Moines. Unfortunately, their first-year head coach and toast of the town, Keno Davis, bolted the first chance he got for a job at perennial Big East doormat Providence. The fact that he left for what seems like "any job other than Drake" might speak volumes about his opinion of the odds of sustained success in Des Moines.
Around the Valley, that's a popular opinion, but anytime a school goes nearly four decades between relevant seasons, its a valid question to ask. Just look at their five-year RPI curve and you'll see what I mean:
195
147
176
112
10
Is Drake the team with a Top-10 RPI or the team with decades of triple-digit RPIs? Are the losses of all-everything point guard Adam Emmenecker, top threat Leonard Houston and long-range ace Klayton Korver too much to replace? Can Josh Young and Bucky Cox keep the winning momentum?
Its up to new head coach Mark Phelps to prove the doubters wrong. While its unlikely the Bulldgos will slip back into a second-division afterthought this year, they do have more to replace than almost any team in the league, and that's just on the court. They're also breaking in a new coach and a new system.
I think Young is a terrific player and has the ability to carry the scoring load, and Cox's size and experience will give them a solid interior player. A second-straight postseason appearance is likely; whether its in the NIT or the NCAA Tournament depends on how quickly the new players get accustomed to life in the Valley.
What to watch for: Drake, as they do every year, plays Iowa and Iowa State. What differs from every other year is that the Bulldogs will probably be favored to win both games. Although the Hawkeyes and Cyclones will likely be varying shades of horrible again this year, if the Bulldogs can pull off two wins, they should gain positive press for themselves and the league.
Versus Creighton: 1/24 in Omaha, 2/4 in Des Moines
Prognosis: 20-7, 10-8 in the MVC, NIT berth
3. Illinois State
Last year, Illinois State won 25 games, went 13-5 in the league, finished with an RPI of 33, and somehow found itself on the outside looking in come tournament time. The Redbirds had the unfortunate luck of picking last year to return from the dead -- their great season was only the second best story in their own league, and consequently they flew under the radar all year. They trailed Drake from the opening gate, and lost to the Bulldogs three times -- including a 79-49 drubbing in the MVC title game in front of a national TV audience on CBS that likely kicked them off the bubble for the NCAA Tourney.
Three starters are gone from that 25-win team, but unfortunately for the rest of the league, the best two remain. Osiris Eldridge is perhaps the best player in the league. The 6-3 junior was among the league leaders in the four big categories -- averaging 16 points, 6 boards, 2 assists and 1.3 steals -- while scoring in double figures a whopping 30 times. Eldridge is the type of player his teammates can lean on, as evidenced in his 34-point effort against Indiana State, where he shot 7-9 from behind the arc and 12-18 from the floor.
The Redbirds swept the series from Creighton a year ago, winning the conference opener in Omaha decisively, 80-67 and a late-season battle in Normal, 68-54. Four key contributors from those wins are no longer around: Anthony Slack, Boo Richardson, Levi Dyer and Dom Johnson graduated, leaving just Eldridge and Emmanuel Holloway as returning players with experience.
Joining Eldridge and Holloway are a whopping eight newcomers, and coach Tim Jankovich will use a soft non-conference slate to sort out the pieces and figure out a rotation to surround his two stars before conference play begins. Eldridge is good enough to carry the Redbirds many nights, and he alone makes them a team no one will want to play come Arch Madness...much less in January and February.
What to watch for: A stellar *cough* non-conference slate features these games: home games with Alabama State, Houston Baptist, Nicholls State, Winston-Salem, UC Santa-Barbara, Bowling Green, Morehead State, and Illinois Chicago; road games at Wright State, Southern Methodist, and Central Michigan. Not exactly murderer's row, but with a young team -- much like Creighton had a year ago -- easing the team into the MVC season with a series of winnable games in December is not the worst idea. Anything less than 10-1 after that stretch, however, might be reason for concern.
Versus Creighton: 1/3 in Normal, 2/28 in Omaha
Prognosis: 21-9, 11-7 in the MVC, NCAA bubble team
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Coming tomorrow: Part III of my MVC Preview.
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