After years of unprecedented stability and growth, last year half of the Valley schools hired new coaches (Drake, Evansville, Illinois State, Indiana State and Wichita State) and almost added a sixth to the list when the Creighton job sat vacant for 24 hours. Once the season started, two teams that had been the conference bellwethers -- Creighton and Southern Illinois -- struggled to earn NIT bids. Meanwhile, perennial doormat Drake had a once-in-a-generation year and won the league.
Like it or not, the league took a public relations hit last year. That's a heckuva lot of turnover in the coaching ranks, although anyone who took more than a cursory glance would notice that only one of the departing coaches left of his own volition. Royce Waltman had a good run at Indiana State but had struggled in recent years. Steve Merfeld was never able to turn around Evansville after replacing longtime coach Jim Crews. Porter Moser ran out of time in Normal before reaping the benefits of his solid recruiting. And Dr. Tom Davis retired at Drake after breathing life back into a lifeless program. Only Mark Turgeon at Wichita State left to take a "better" job.
So while the league had five new coaches, four of the five were in the bottom half of the conference. The perception was much worse than the reality.
And while Drake winning big was a nice story, having them dominate the league while stalwarts Creighton and SIU struggled gave national pundits an easy excuse to write off the league. If Drake -- DRAKE! -- dominated the league, obviously the talent level must be down. And come March, the league got just one NCAA bid, the first time the Valley wasn't a multi-bid league in almost a decade. But the league still had talent and numerous good teams, it was just young. Illinois State had a great year, and although they weren't dominant as in years past, Creighton and Southern both had nice years. Again, the perception was worse than the reality.
This year, the conference breaks in two more new coaches (Drake again, Missouri State), but the traditional powers look to be again favored. Will that help bring the Valley to the top of the non-football conferences? Or will the damage from one "down" year hamper the league's reputation in 2008-09?
Over the next three days, I'll break down the conference team by team. Thursday, I'll cover the contenders. Wednesday, I'll look at the teams looking to make a move. But first up, a look at the teams that will be playing the "Play-In" games in St. Louis -- or simply put, the teams that will be in the bottom of the standings come March.
THE RUDY WASHINGTON DIVISION
10. Wichita State
Its been a precipitous fall for the Shockers, who as recently as three years ago were a Sweet 16 team. Seriously, this was legitimately one of the 20 best teams in America practically yesterday. They finished next to last in the Valley last year, and I believe they'll be even worse this year. As Mike LaFontaine might have asked, "Wha' Happened?"
Here's what I wrote in previewing their season last year: "2006-07 looked soooo good at the outset for the Wheatshockers. Coming off unprecedented momentum after a Sweet 16 berth and national exposure, they signed Mark Turgeon to a huge extension and sold out their entire home schedule before a game had even been played. They began the year ranked in the Top 25, and got as high as #8 with a 9-0 start. Then they went 1-6 over their next seven games, fell from the rankings and never recovered."
You could make the case that the program never recovered from that 1-6 stretch after they entered the Top 10. At the end of that season, Turgeon left for Texas A&M, recruits bailed, and the program was in shambles as Gregg Marshall took the reigns. From an RPI of 27 in 2005-06, the Shockers fell beyond "Bad Loss" territory and into "Losing to this team should eliminate you from NCAA consideration" territory. They were that bad: their RPI was 199, just one notch above the dreaded 200+ category that destroys any team who even plays them, even if they win.
So they have to be better in 2008-09, right? It can't get any worse than 11-20 and 4-14 in the league, right? (Even if their record was deceiving: they only had two losses of more than 11 points, and lost in OT three times).
Um...
Four starters from that team are gone, just five players return, and of those five, four had health concerns over the offseason. Eight of the 12 players on the roster are underclassmen.
Additionally, their lone returning starter and one of just two seniors, Ramon Clemente, passed out during conditioning drills over the summer, and did not practice the rest of the summer. While he was cleared to play in August, rumors persist that he will miss part or all of the season. Should he not play, all five starters would be gone from the team. Leading scorer (and likely the only household name casual Valley fans can name) P.J. Couisnard graduated, and both of their point guards also left. Senior Matt Braeuer graduated, while the guy who took over his starting role when Braeuer was injured mid-season, Gal Mekel, returned to Israel to play pro ball.
A lack of experience in a tough league will make this a long year in Wichita. I said of them last year, "While they're certainly not starting from scratch, the Shockers are darn close to doing just that." Well, this year they ARE starting from scratch. This is now Gregg Marshall's team, for better or worse. At least in 2008-09, its definitely for the worse.
What to watch for: Wichita State plays in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando November 27-30, and has a chance to pick up some marquee wins for the conference if they can pull off an upset or two. That's because the field includes Georgetown, Michigan State, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Maryland and Oklahoma State.
Versus Creighton: 12/28 in Omaha, 1/17 in Wichita
Prognosis: 9-20, 3-15 in the MVC
9. Missouri State
Valley Cheerleader Barry Hinson is gone, and in his place is Purdue alum Cuonzo Martin, in his first head coaching gig. The team also moves into new digs, as the team christens the $67 million John Q Hamnmons Arena in November with an opening night tilt against Arkansas. Hinson took over for Steve Alford following his Sweet 16 run, and in nine years failed to get the team into the NCAA Tournament even once. Granted, he had several borderline-great teams, an was screwed by the selection committee once (without a doubt) and possibly twice (arguably). His teams averaged 19 wins a year, and he graduated 46 of his 48 players -- the highest Academic Progress Rate in the conference.
Martin played for legendary Gene Keady at Purdue, later coached under him and most recently worked for former Southern Illinois coach Matt Painter on the Boilermakers bench. It was a tough year in 2007-08 for the Bears, although they limped to a 17-16 finish. Back from that seventh place team are the Brothers Laurie -- Shane and Spencer -- as Spencer was granted a rare sixth year of eligibility due to injury. Spencer led the team with 63 three-pointers a year ago, while his younger brother drained in 36.
Also back is 6-0 junior Justin Fuehrmeyer, who was second on the team in minutes and third in three-pointers with 40. And 6-4 senior Chris Cooks, who got unexpected playing time last year due to frontcourt injuries, also returns.
Most of the rest of the roster is made up of inexperienced players, transfers and freshmen, which will likely make Martin's first head coaching gig tough sledding, at least for the first season. With their sparkling new facilities, the Bears won't be down long, but they'll take their lumps in 2008-09.
What to watch for: The Grand Opening of JQH Arena comes against Arkansas, but the most brutal stretch of the season is likely a three-game swing in the middle of the MVC slate: a 1/25 home game against much-improved Northern Iowa followed by back-to-back road games against Southern Illinois and Creighton.
Versus Creighton: 2/1 in Omaha, 2/24 in Springfield
Prognosis: 10-19, 4-14 in the MVC
8. Evansville
The Purple Aces were abysmal a year ago, winning just nine games and going 3-15 in the league, good for last place. In fact, its been a brutal five year stretch for the Aces, with an average RPI of 205 and a high-water mark of just 131 two years ago. Last year, they almost single-handedly dragged down the rest of the league with a 251 RPI that made everyone else worse merely for playing them.
In Year Two for Marty Simmons, the Aces figure to be markedly better. All five starters return, including breakout star Shy Ely, a 6-4 senior who averaged nearly 15 points and 5 boards last year. Ely earned honorable mention all-conference honors, and deservedly so. The Jays experienced his skills first hand in a February game at Evansville, where Ely scored 28 points on an incredible 18-18 from the free throw line. 17 of his points came in the final six minutes, as he put the Aces on his back and carried them to one of just three conference wins.
Also back is notorious Jays killer Jason Holsinger, a 5-11 senior point guard. All Holsinger did last year was lead the conference in minutes (35.5 per game) and finish in the top five in assists, three-pointers made and free throw percentage. Holsinger is the active scoring leader in the Valley with over 1000 points in his career, three-pointers made, assists and free throw percentage.
With Ely and Holsinger, Evansville has two of the better players in the league. The players surrounding them merely need to be decent for the Aces to be dangerous, but that was precisely the problem a year ago. Too often, defenses were able to isolate on one or both, and dare other players to beat them offensively. Defensively, the Aces gave up too many points and were frequently outrebounded.
In the second half of the year, 6-0 guard Kavon Lacey showed vast improvement, doubling his points scored average over the final 17 games. He gives them a solid third option, and if their young frontcourt players can develop, Evansville might be a dangerous team to play come Arch Madness...if not before.
What to watch for: The Aces have arguably the two highest profile non-conference games in the entire league this year: road games against Butler and North Carolina. A strong showing, or dare we dream for an upset or two, could really help the conference come March.
Versus Creighton: 1/20 in Evansville, 2/17 in Omaha
Prognosis: 13-15, 6-12 in the MVC
7. Indiana State
<EDIT: In the original version published here, I erroneously mentioned that Marico Stinson is still a member of the Sycamores, completely ignorant of the fact that he left the team. Incidentally, this is why I don't get paid to do this, and why it costs you nothing to read. Or maybe I just need an editor. Either way, the sentence has been fixed. Thanks to the reader who pointed out my mistake!!>
The Sycamores got out to a fast start last year under first-year head coach and Creighton legend Kevin McKenna, winning four of their first five conference games -- including wins over league heavies Creighton and Southern Illinois. Unfortunately for the Trees, they proceeded to go 1-7 over their next eight games, including six brutal road losses, effectively burying them.
However, they finished 15-16, a massive improvement and their best finish in nearly eight years. More impressive, they were damn near unbeatable at home, finishing 13-3 at home -- including 7-2 in the league. Of course, given their overall mark, that also meant they finished 2-13 on the road, and an ugly 1-8 in the league.
Three starters return from that team, but the two who depart were their leading scorers: Gabe Moore, who averaged over 12 points a game, and second leading scorer Marico Stinson, who left the team unexpectedly at the end of the summer. On the positive side, they do return their best defender, Harry Marshall, who was often asked to shut down the opponents' best wing player -- and who often succeeded at doing just that. He also contributed 10 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game.
If things break right for the Trees -- particularly on the road, where they struggled mightily a year ago -- they could feasibly avoid Play-In Thursday in St. Louis. An NIT bid is probably too big of a stretch this year, but they're clearly headed in the right direction and post-season play is not out of the question in the not-so distant future.
What to watch for: The Sycamores have a pretty tough non-conference slate, taking on the mentality of playing anyone anytime. Road games against Louisville, DePaul and Purdue give them three opportunities for headline-grabbing wins, and they could substantially help the league with an upset or two.
Versus Creighton: 12/31 in Terre Haute, 1/27 in Omaha
Prognosis: 15-14, 7-9 in the MVC
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