I don't want to say that the Evansville game is akin to a gimme in golf, because no matter what, a road game in conference is never easy. That said, the Purple Aces are 7-16 overall and 2-11 in the Valley, their point guard is out for the season with a broken hand, and the Jays won the first meeting by 18.
Shy Ely is averaging 14 points a game and 5.5 boards, but the loss of Jason Holsinger makes an already overmatched Aces squad that much weaker. As Creighton's game notes point out, "Jason Holsinger was averaging 13.0 points per game but broke his non-shooting right hand on Saturday and is not expected to play on Wednesday. Holsinger's 103 assists are 64 more than any other UE player and he's also made 60 of the team's 128 three-pointers to date."
On paper, this shouldn't be much of a game. But as I've often said, games aren't played on paper, they're played on television -- or in tonight's case, radio, because its the first road game of the season to not be televised in Omaha. Think about that, its February 13 before there's a road game we can't watch on TV. (The Xavier game on December 5 was technically televised, although the broadcast was rightfully pre-empted for coverage of the Westroads shooting).
PREDICTION: Jays 76, Evansville 58.
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In other Valley news, 13-0 Drake travels to Carbondale tonight to battle the Salukis. Do the Jays want Drake to lose, or are they better off with a Drake win? For that matter, do the Jays want Drake to tank down the stretch, or run the table?
Its an interesting idea to consider. Drake is five games up on CU and four on ISU Red with five to play, so without an epic collapse the league is theirs to win. So to see how that affects CU, lets examine the scenarios.
The Jays are 1 game up on Southern Illinois, which plays Drake at home tonight. Creighton could extend that lead to 2 if they beat Evansville. I think its best to put SIU in the rearview mirror, so the Jays want Drake to win tonight.
The Jays are 2 games up on Northern Iowa, which plays Drake at home on Saturday. Provided scenario #1 comes true, the Jays could go up 3 over UNI with a win over Bradley on Saturday. And remember, the Jays swept UNI, so they hold the tiebreaker if it comes down to that. I think the Jays want Drake to win in Cedar Falls, too.
Creighton is 1.5 games up on Bradley (the Braves have played one fewer game), and still has to play the Braves twice, so they should be able to knock Bradley out of the race themselves. But a bigger cushion never hurts, particularly if the Jays stumble in Peoria on Saturday, which is a distinct possibility. Root for Drake in this one, as well.
Their other two remaining games are against bottom-tier schools Missouri State and Wichita State, so the outcomes of these games don't directly affect the Jays. But I think an undefeated Drake team will be easier to upset (not that it will be easy, just comparatively speaking). The longer a win streak goes on, the harder it is to continue. A loss prior to Arch Madness could refocus the Bulldogs and lead to them running roughshod through the field in St. Louis. An undefeated Bulldogs team could have a bad game under the weight of heavier expectations. So I think the Jays want Drake to beat the Shockers and the Bears, too.
Also, running the table would mean Drake would, at some point, be rated in the Top 10. Having a team with such a lofty ranking is good for the league, will bring more media attention to Arch Madness, and keep the national media from declaring the death of the MVC.
I say, as Jays fans, root for the Bulldogs to win out until Sunday in St. Louis, and hope the Jays can be their opponent in the title game. And of course, hope that their first loss comes that day.
You bet.
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