I don't like numbers. I've always regarded math as a "necessary evil". In fact, I have a report card from 2nd grade where my teacher claims I told her so, in those exact words. But I do like numbers in one instance: if someone else does the legwork and just presents the analysis to me. Like on my 401k statement or my investment analysis.
So I asked my friend Kenny Tesla to bring some respect for the numbers today, and break down the game stats. No that's not his real name, that's just what I nicknamed him. He hates it and it pretty much pisses him off that all of our friends call him by that name now, which of course means the name isn't going away anytime soon. So without any further ado, here's Kenny Tesla's statistical analysis of last night's game. If you enjoy it, I might even invite him to make this a regular feature. You bet.
After the jump, the next words you read will be those of one Kenneth Tesla, Esq. Enjoy.
It seemed like the halftime score was deceiving last night. Specifically, if the Jays were making fewer perimeter shots, they wouldn't have been ahead. Lets get smarter with stats from the first half of last night's action!
From the Floor:
Drake 10-25 (40.0%)
Creighton 11-27 (40.7%)
The Jays had one more made basket, but had attempted two more shots. That's virtually even, so it doesn't tell us much.
Three-Pointers:
Drake 4-13 (30.8%)
Creighton 8-15 (53.3%)
A ha! Here's the difference -- the Jays attempted two more threes, but made FOUR more. Couple those extra four points with the extra bucket made, and there's your six-point difference. The Jays weren't going to continue shooting 53% from behind the arc, and Drake wasn't going to keep shooting 30%. Both teams were going to regress to the mean of around 40%...would the Jays be able to do other things to win when things got tight?
Rebounds:
Drake 11 (4 Offensive)
Creighton 20 (9 Offensive)
And here's where the extra attempts come from -- a 20-11 edge on the boards and a +5 differential on offensive rebounds.
Defensive Intensity (A completely made-up stat where I add blocks, steals and turnovers forced to get a nice even -- or in some cases odd -- number):
Drake 13
Creighton 5
Ouch. What this tells you is that Drake was playing with a lot more intensity on defense, forcing more turnovers and getting more steals than the Jays. It was masked by great perimeter shooting in the first half, but when that percentage drops back to earth, they would get slaughtered by a Drake team that was out-hustling them.
***
So what happened in the second half? The Jays perimeter shooting regressed to the mean, but they kept chucking them anyway -- a ridiculous 34 of their 58 shots were from behind the perimeter. Lets look at the second-half stats.
From the Floor:
Drake 9-28 (32.1%)
Creighton 8-21 (38.1%)
So here we see Drake make up for the one fewer bucket in the first half by scoring one more in the second half. Its interesting that they shot a lot worse in the second half overall, because I thought the stats would show the opposite. The Jays, meanwhile, were essentially flat with the first half (40% to 38.1%). The big number here is Drake having seven more attempts than the Jays...I have an idea why this is, and we'll see if I'm right here in a minute.
Three-Pointers:
Drake 4-15 (26.7%)
Creighton 3-11 (27.3%)
Another surprising stat. The Jays did, in fact, regress to the mean...but Drake got even worse. Interesting. And the Bulldogs made one more three pointer, while once again attempting four more shots than the Jays. Do you see a trend here?
Free Throws:
Drake 8-8 (100%)
Creighton 5-8 (62.5%)
Another three point gain for Drake.
Rebounds:
Drake 18 (6 Offensive)
Creighton 15 (2 Offensive)
And there it is. Drake outrebounds the Jays by three, and pulls down four more offensive boards. Although actually, I expected these numbers to be a bit further apart. But that's where Drake made up the six-point deficit right there -- taking more shots, making more shots, pulling down more rebounds.
Defensive Intensity:
Drake 11
Creighton 5
Double ouch. Drake continued outhustling the Jays and playing better defensively than the Jays.
***
Just for sake of completion, here's the numbers from Overtime.
From the Floor:
Drake 2-3 (66.7%)
Creighton 1-10 (10%)
Good lord, the Jays chucked up SEVEN more shots than the Bulldogs in Overtime. How did that happen? Of course, Drake managed to make one more basket despite taking seven fewer shots.
Three-Pointers:
Drake 1-2 (50%)
Creighton 1-8 (12.5%)
That's just ghastly right there. No further comment needed.
Free Throws:
Drake 9-10 (90%)
Creighton 3-4 (75%)
Here's the game. Drake made virtually all of their free throws in overtime, Creighton missed their shots from the floor, and that's the game.
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