School Databank:
Location: Des Moines, IA
Enrollment: 3,164
Famous sports alumni: Zach Johnson (PGA, Masters Champion)
Last game: Beat Illinois State 79-73
Last game vs Creighton: Creighton won 67-62 on February 2, 2007
Series: Creighton leads 86-52 (52-17 in Omaha)
The Jays and Bulldogs have played 138 times, but its safe to say none of them have been as heavily anticipated on both sides of the border than this one. Drake will take the court tonight as a rated team for the first time since 1971, looking to continue steamrolling through their schedule. At 16-1 and 7-0 in the league, they are the best team in the Valley. Say what you want about Drake, but the fact of the matter is that they are in sole possession of first place, are undefeated in the league, and are the only ranked team in the MVC.
If Drake can win tonight in Omaha, they'll make the MVC a two-team race between themselves and Illinois State. But if Creighton can pull off the upset, they'll be just a game back of the leaders and make it a three-team race for the regular season championship. There are 10 conference games left after tonight, sure, but this is a big one.
With the Bulldogs coming basically out of nowhere (they did finish seventh a year a go despite a winning overall record), respect from opposing fans has been hard to earn. I've heard a lot of predictions from Jays fans who confuse this Drake team with Drake teams of old; 15 and 20 point wins are common predictions. I hope like heck that happens, but its a real mistake to assume Drake's record is a fluke. They're legit, folks.
That's WITH Josh Young, though. The sophomore leads the team in points and steals, but has missed the last three games with a high ankle sprain. Indications are he will not play tonight, and if he doesn't, that leaves Drake needing to make up the 17 points a night he won't be contributing.
While they've continued winning in his absence, the Bulldogs are scoring less and giving up more than their averages with Young, making one wonder if they'll eventually wind up on the wrong end of a close ballgame. Although, in their last game, former walk-on Adam Emmenecker picked up the scoring slack and made up for Young's absence offensively. Can he do it two games in a row? Or will someone else have to step up?
Should Emmenecker fail to make up for Young's points, Drake has plenty of other options. Senior guard Leonard Houston averages 15 a night, Jonathan Cox averages 12 and Klayton Korver almost 10, giving the Bulldogs four solid scoring options even without Young.
Depth-wise, the Bulldogs play 10 players nine minutes or more a game, have six players averaging in double figures and have five players averaging three or more boards a night.
Defensively, the Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 41% shooting from the floor, while making 45% of their own shots. They average 74 points a game and give up 58, have out-rebounded their opponents by an average of six boards a night, have forced almost 100 more turnovers than they've committed, and have 50 more steals than their opponents. They sound awfully good on paper, don't they? But stats can sometimes lie. So lets go deeper.
They've won games where they were behind late (Illinois State). They've won defensive, grind-it-out games (Southern Illinois). They've won shootouts. They've won close games. They've won on the road. The more I look at this team, the more I'm inclined to believe their 16-1 record is no fluke.
We'll find out for ourselves tonight, and see with our own eyes what Drake is made of in front of 17,500 hostile fans. Will they fold like Northern Iowa did two years ago, when they came to town one day after earning their first Top 25 ranking? Or will they come out firing and beat back the spirited young Jays?
Personally, I don't see either team winning by more than a basket. I think it will go back and forth all night, and someone will need to make a play down the stretch to win. Next week in Des Moines, I'd bet on Drake. But tonight, at home, I think the Jays are the team that will make the big play.
PREDICTION: Jays 63, Drake 61
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