Gameday: Creighton at #21 Xavier

Its also a matchup that both teams have had circled for some time. Xavier coach Sean Miller told the media after the Belmont game that Creighton has "physically beat us up. We play them on their terms and we lose. That absolutely can't happen on Wednesday. It's as big of a game as we'll play all season."

Senior Stanley Burrell has never beaten the Jays, and he does not look back with fondness at the loss last year. "We didn't forget. We're definitely looking forward to this game. I can't wait for them to get here. We're 0-3 against them since I've been here."

In other words, this is the exact opposite of Nebraska's approach -- which is bad news for the Jays. Xavier is bigger and more experienced than the Jays, and when combined with the rowdiness of the Cintas Center and the fact that Xavier has had this game circled for months, the probability of a Jays win seems rather small. But its no fun to be negative (or even realistic, for that matter) so I'm going to break the game down anyway. Sound awesome? Lets see how the Jays might be able to pull off the upset...after the jump.

Xavier graduated three senior starters from last years' squad: Justin Doellman, Justin Cage and Brandon Cole. Doellman was a first-team All-A10 player, and had nice games against Creighton over the years (last years' struggles notwithstanding). Those losses mean Xavier is inexperienced in the frontcourt, but it doesn't mean they're not talented. Mercy, no. They return a senior backcourt, gain the A-10's best transfer, and have several bench players having breakout seasons in their new roles.

Drew Lavender is still around, and yes, he's still really good. Not only is he averaging nearly 11 points per game, he leads the team in both assists and steals. Backcourt mate and fellow senior Stanley Burrell averages 12 points a night and has accepted a defensive-stopper role. Lavender and Burrell are the best backcourt in the A-10, and one of the best the Jays will face all year. Those two were the only sure-thing Xavier had coming into the season; their early season success has been predicated on the contributions from newcomers and former backups now thrust into starting roles.

Over their first seven games, which included wins over Kent State and #8 Indiana, six Musketeers averaged in double-figures in points. Six! BJ Raymond, a 6'6" senior forward who averaged 4 points a game last year, is averaging almost 14 a game this year. Manhattan transfer CJ Anderson averaged 18 points and 9 boards as a sophomore at the MAAC school, and the Cincinnati native has picked right up where he left off, scoring nearly 13 a night for the X-men.

As a team, the Musketeers average 83 points a night and shoot almost 50% from the field (49.6%). They shoot well from behind the arc too (39%) and from the line (71%). In short, this team can score. But can they stop anyone? The numbers seem to indicate this is not just an offensively-minded team, as they are giving up just 59.1 points per game.

Sounds like an awfully good team, doesn't it? The voters seem to think so, ranking Xavier #21 this week. And Vegas agrees, making the X-men an 11.5 point favorite.

So how can Creighton pull off the upset? Beyond the individual matchups, which can be affected by too many variables to adequately cover, three "general" things need to happen.

One, they need to play turnover-free basketball. The Cintas Center crowd can be very loud, and a slew of turnovers will whip them into a frenzy. No offense to Drexel, but there's a big difference between a 2500 gym and a 10,000 seat arena. As such, this is first really hostile environment for the Jays nine newcomers, and sloppy ballhandling is a sure-fire way to get them in trouble.

Two, play with controlled excitement. The Jays could potentially use their youth and inexperience to their advantage: P'Allen Stinnett, Cavel Witter, Kenny Lawson and the rest of the newbies have never lost a road game (yet). If they play loose and play with the sort of controlled excitement they've exhibited thus far -- like a team with nothing to lose, with their whole careers in front of them -- this could be an interesting night.

Three, play their best game of the year. Over the first five games, the Jays have had stretches of fantastic play...and stretches of sloppy play and long scoreless droughts. Its a cliche, but they need to come ready to play 40 minutes, because Xavier will most certainly be ready for the Jays.

I want to predict a win, I really do. But I think the Jays will stumble tonight -- not necessarily because of their inexperience, but because Xavier is not pleased at losing three straight to the Jays and will not be eager to make it four. They've had this game circled for months, they're at home in front of their fans, and their senior backcourt has accomplished a lot but has never beaten Creighton. That's a helluva lot of motivation, and in a matchup that appears to only slightly favor Xavier, that may well tip the scales into a blowout. I hope not.

I believe it will be a close game, within one or two buckets all night, and Xavier will pull away late on the free throw line. Prove me wrong, Jays, and its virtual cans of Heee-Haw for everyone!

Prediction: Xavier 78, Jays 69