Creighton only plays two quote-unquote BCS teams this year. I abhor that term; BCS stands for Bowl Championship Series, after all, which is a College Football classification and has nothing whatsoever to do with College Hoops. But national media use it as an easily-defined method of classifying schools into nice little groups. Makes their jobs easier.
Like it or not, that's the way the system works. A win over a "BCS" team carries more weight in the court of public opinion than a win over a superior mid-major. For instance, in 2004 Creighton defeated a decent Ohio State team on a neutral court, and a pretty damn good Xavier team on the road. Guess which game got more attention nationally? Ohio State, because "Creighton upsets Ohio State" is a better story than "Creighton defeats Xavier", even though Xavier was the superior team.
Which brings us to DePaul. The Blue Demons are picked to finish anywhere from 10th to 14th in the Big East, depending on which prognosticator you believe. Its entirely possible that future Creighton opponents such as Drexel, Xavier and St. Josephs could all wind up with better teams than DePaul. But a win over DePaul carries more weight, because they're in the Big East.
"Oh, they beat DePaul? Wow!"
Right. You bet.
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Creighton and DePaul are what you could call, I guess, "old" rivals. The Jays and Blue Demons have met 20 times, which makes them one of the most frequent non-conference opponents. However, they've only played once in the Dana Altman era, and just twice since 1990. From 1977-1986, the teams played almost every year and developed a pretty good rivalry, with DePaul dominating the series but every game being competitive. This was a stretch where DePaul was a regular in the Top 5, too - and was the #1 team in America for the teams' game in 1980.
These Blue Demons are no longer one of the top teams in America, but they still present a significant challenge for Creighton, especially on opening night. The 2007-08 version enters the season without their top two players from a year ago, Sammy Mejia and Wilson Chandler. Coincidentally, those two players were the biggest thorns in the sides of the Jays in the last meeting. Chandler had 17 points and 8 boards, while Mejia contributed 15 points, six boards and five assists.
Chandler, in particular, will be tough to replace. The 6'-8" small forward was one of the best players in the Big East last season, leading the Blue Demons to the cusp of the Final Four of the NIT. He was their leading rebounder and a solid, steady performer, but unfortunately for DePaul he turned pro after just two years at the school and was drafted by the Knicks.
Among the six new players coach Jerry Wainwright brought in, Mac Koshwal presents the biggest mismatch for the Jays. Rated the 27th best prospect in the country by Rivals, the 6'-10" center averaged a double-double three years in high school. His ability to score in the paint -- and Creighton's unproven post players -- could be a bit of a problem.
Three other players 6'-10" or taller fill out DePaul's roster, meaning they can run four 6'-10" or taller bodies at the Jays in an attempt to tire them out. 7'-2" Kene Obi is perhaps the most intriguing, if only because anyone he's, well, did I mention he's 86 INCHES TALL? EIGHTY-SIX! Good lord. Replacing Chandler is tough, but these four guys should eventually handle the load.
Replacing Mejia is more difficult, but Darquavis Tucker is up to the challenge. The 23rd ranked recruit by Rivals, Tucker was the runner-up Mr. Basketball in Michigan last year. He's 6'-5" guard who jumps, rebounds, plays both the two and the three, and guards anybody.
Creighton simply can't matchup height-wise with DePaul, so this game is going to come down to defense and rebounding. Coincidentally, these are two areas where Creighton generally struggles early in the season. They simply must box-out and play stellar defense. If they do, this will be a great game. If they don't, I could envision a scenario where DePaul wins by 8-10 points.
Where Creighton can match-up is athleticism. P'Allen Stinnett is, as Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports says, the sort of athlete Creighton isn't accustomed to getting. Chad Millard is a big who can run the floor. Dane Watts can shoot from anywhere on the court, and will hopefully draw DePaul's bigs out away from the basket and open up rebounding lanes for CU's guards.
The fact that this game is taking place on November 9 in Omaha cannot be underestimated. DePaul is replacing two irreplaceable stars with a very talented recruiting class, and at least for the first few games, those guys will be trying to make up for what they lack in experience with sheer talent. In a hostile environment against a good team, that's a huge advantage for the home side. You can't prepare for 17,000 fans screaming at you, and as a first collegiate game, that's an awful big step up from high school gyms.
Creighton simply needs to shoot in the high-40s percentage wise, play superb defense and not give up easy baskets, and rebound the heck out of the ball. I think they can do that, particularly at home.
Players to Watch.
Kenton Walker and Kenny Lawson. Creighton's young post players need to play good defense and keep DePaul's bigs from killing the Jays in the paint. If what they produce cancels out DePaul's bigs, I'll take my chances any day of the week with our guards against theirs.
Pizza or No Pizza, That Is The Question.
No pizza tonight. I just don't see the Jays shooting well enough in their first game to get to 75, and there won't be enough second-chance points off rebounds to make up for it.
The Series.
DePaul holds a 15-5 edge, including 12 of the last 13. The last meeting came in November of 2005. You might remember that one -- Creighton shot just 30%, and allowed DePaul to get to the free throw line an astounding 39 times (they made 31). Its also the fateful game where Nate Funk injured his shoulder diving out of bounds for a ball late in the game, an injury that would eventually sideline him for the rest of the season.
Prediction.
There are three keys to the game. Stout defense, rebounding, and keeping the crowd involved to rattle DePaul's young players. As I said earlier, if those things don't happen, I think DePaul wins, and it might not be particularly close. But I believe at least two of those three will become a reality, and thus, Creighton will win.
Jays 62, DePaul 57.
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