Projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket is an inexact science, much like meteorology, climatology and beerbong, um, ology. I'm always quite amused by jokers like Jerry Palm, Warren Nolan, and to a lesser extent, Joe Lunardi.
Believe it or not, my comparison of bracketology to meteorology was not just a cheap joke, although it certainly succeeded at being that. Both of these predictions are worthless more than a day or two out. How many times have you heard the weatherman predict 70 degrees and sunny 8 days from now, only to arrive at that day and have it be 50 degrees and rainy? Lots of intervening factors can change the outlook between the day of the prediction and the actual day.
This is a lot like bracketology. As of Monday, Missouri State was in most brackets. Then a couple of solidly "in" teams from otherwise one-bid leagues failed to gain their conferences' auto bid, thus stealing an at-large from someone else. Suddenly, Missouri State was out on most brackets. But yesterday, upsets galore in conference tournaments seem to have not only vaulted Missouri State back in, but have placed Bradley back in the discussion, if you can believe that.
These bracketologists will inevitably change their prediction ten times between now and Sunday at 4:30. Maybe 20 times. That final prediction -- the final bracket, and the one their "stellar" record of correctness is based on -- will look NOTHING like the one today.
Which begs the question: why bother looking at any bracket projections until that final one?
Because its fun to watch people make projections that turn out to be totally wrong. Its human nature. For instance, here's the Jays' projections as of this morning:
Warren Nolan: (6) Jays vs (11) Air Force in Columbus
DraftExpress: (7) Jays vs (10) Air Force in New Orleans
USA Today: (5) Jays vs (12) Gonzaga in Columbus
Lunardi: (6) Jays vs (11) Purdue in Sacramento
Palm: (10) Jays vs Varying teams depending on the day
Pretty wild across the board, isn't it? One thing that sticks out is Jerry P. Palm (seriously, that's how he credits himself on his website) and his prediction of a 10 seed -- the only prognosticator lower than a 7. The unintentional comedy that Jerry P. Palm creates should be enough to make him one of my favorites, but here's his problem: he's a mathematics guy who acquits himself well when he's discussing numbers, RPI, and the like. But when he talks about non-numerical things, such as, oh, basketball, he becomes painfully unlistenable.
Jerry P. Palm was on 590 with Matt Perrault earlier this week, and Matt took the guy to task time and again for his axe-grinding seeding of Creighton as a 10. After this interview, and some other things I've read from Jerry P. Palm, he's safely added to the "Polyfro Hall Of Suckiness", alongside charter members Richard Digger Dick Phelps, Billy Packer, Jim Nantz, Gary Williams, and Gary Parrish of CBSSportsLine.
"To be a 7 seed, you have to be a borderline Top-25 team."
Matt answered back, "Creighton is 21 in the RPI, and the Top 30 in both polls this week, so they are borderline Top-25."
Dead air for a few moments while Math Boy thinks of a response, and then this hastily-assembled gem: "Well, but they don't have any marquee wins, and they were really muddling along until this past weekend."
It gets better. "There is NO way they can get a 6 seed. NO way." Even though everyone else seems to think they can and will. OK, Jerry P. Palm.
This seems like an opportune moment to note that Jerry P. Palm saw the Jays lethargic performance at last-place Illinois State two weeks ago in person -- perhaps the lowest point of a season of low points. He's allowing that one game to paint his perception of the team. After that game, he took them out of his bracket entirely -- not even a "Bubble Team", entirely out -- when everyone else said they'd not helped themselves, but were still either "in" or on the bubble.
Can the Jays get placed in Chicago for the First-Second rounds? Not according to Jerry P. Palm. "There is absolutely no chance they end up in Chicago. 7-10 seeds are virtually interchangeable, and there is no really no difference between being a 7 or a 10. They'll just go wherever they fit, they're not high enough to get priority of placement."
OK, that's fair enough, to an extent I suppose. But then he shoots his mouth off with this: "Drexel is basically on the same line as Creighton. They had so many great non-conference road wins, they beat Creighton at home, they're probably a higher seed at this point."
So a fourth-place finish in the Colonial is blown away by a strong non-conference? Thus making them better than a second-place finisher from the MVC? OK. You bet.
I was ready to let this go, I really was...and then I saw his latest bracket. He now has the Jays as a 12 seed. Did someone in a Creighton shirt spill a beverage on him in Normal? Why the axe to grind?
You know what, Jerry P. Palm? Give the Jays a 12 seed, and I promise you Nick Porter will carry the Jays to the Sweet 16. It seems this team, and Porter in particular, reacts rather well with a chip on their/his shoulder. So bring on a 12 seed. I dare you.
You bet.
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