Its time to set aside the jokes and the references to Star Wars, and its time to trade in your Heee-Haw for a can of Mountain Dew. Its time to get serious. Its gameday, baby.
Nevada and Creighton square off at 1:50 central time from New Orleans today, in the only 7-10 game between two ranked teams that I can ever remember. If you're looking for proof that the committee underseeded both of these teams, look no further than that fact. Nevada has been in the Top 25 for the better portion of the year, peaking with a run in the Top 10. Creighton opened up in the Top 25, was picked by Sports Illustrated at #13, then tumbled to a 150+ RPI after embarrassing losses at Nebraska, Fresno State, Dayton and Hawaii. But the Jays have played up to potential -- finally -- over the past two weeks, and enter today's game ranked #24.
The national media has found it tempting to look at the mere presence of three-time WAC Player of the Year and All-American Nick Fazekas, surrounded by a very solid supporting cast, and hand the game to Nevada before the tip. How good is Fazekas? He's one of six players EVER to score 2000 points and get 1000 rebounds while making half his shots from the floor and 80% from the charity stripe. The others? Larry Bird, Rick Barry, Bill Bradley, Christian Laettner and Keith Van Horn. That list started out pretty good...but being compared to Chode Boy, er, Laettner and Van Horn? You bet.
Nevada is 6th in the county in three-point percentage, at a robust 41%. They're 16th in field-goal percentage at 49%. They're 16th in free-throw percentage at 75%. They've only been outrebounded five times all year. They've won 27 games. Their shooting guard, Marcellus Kemp, has scored 81 points in their last three games.
Clearly, Creighton has no chance. Why even bother showing up? Nevada is so obviously better at every position and in every major statistical category, and their first-round upset loss last year has them hungry. Seriously, the Jays should have just saved themselves the embarrassment and the cash by staying home and forfeiting. Because any moron can see there is no way Nevada loses.
At least, that's what ESPN and CBS would have you believe. But its not true.
The way I see it, Creighton has the edge at 3 of the 5 starting positions.
Nate Funk vs Kyle Shiloh: Funk should have been the Valley Player of the Year, and his performances in St. Louis nearly single-handedly carried the team offensively. His counterpart is nursing a hamstring injury that he will play through, but can he really defend Funk with a bum hammy? Can he guard Funk if he was 100%? Right. You bet. Funk has the edge here, with no debate.
Isacc Miles vs Marcellus Kemp: Miles is a Freshman. He does Freshman things, like making a great play one second and a horribly asinine play the next. Meanwhile, Kemp shoots 42% from three-point land and made 80 threes this year. Kemp gets the nod here.
Nick Porter vs Ramon Sessions: Porter finally seemed to lock in down in St. Louis, giving the Jays the slasher they've desperately needed all year. His ability to drive inside with the ball, draw fouls and get HUGE rebounds over taller players is a matchup nightmare for just about anyone. Sessions runs the offense and has the most assists on the team, but his shooting can be lackluster and he is a suspect defender. Slight edge to Porter here because of his ability to get defenders in foul trouble.
Dane Watts vs Denis Ikovlev: Watts is quietly becoming a very, very solid player. He has improved his ability to rebound over bigger players and to play in the paint, but his 40% shooting from behind the arc is his biggest advantage. A big guy that can shoot that well creates huge problems for a defense. Ikovlev seems, from what I've seen, to be a latter-day Nerijus Karlikanovas. In other words: streaky offensively, zero defense with marginal rebounding ability. Watts gets the nod, and its not particularly close.
Anthony Tolliver vs Nick Fazekas: You know the stats. Why exactly will Fazekas cause problems for Tolliver? He's a big guy with the ability to put the ball on the floor and drive at the basket. Tolliver has a tendency to get over-aggressive and foul happy against players like Fazekas. This cannot happen today. If Tolliver stays on the floor, he should be able to score against Fazekas, who is decidedly subpar defensively and has slow feet. If the Jays run 80-90% of their sets through Tolliver, and he stays on the floor and out of foul trouble, he will be the star of the day by leading the Jays to victory. If he sits the bench with foul trouble and this matchup becomes some horridous combo of Manny Gakou/Pierce Hibma vs Nick Fazekas...yeesh. Edge to Fazekas.
Dana Altman vs Mark Fox: IDWT. In Dana We Trust. 'Nuff said.
Bench: Assuming Gakou, Hibma, Dotzler and Bahe can maintain the intensity of the starting five and not allow huge dropoffs when they're in the game, I'm willing to bank on the benches being even. Nevada is not terribly deep either, but they do have a bigger bench. Bigger isn't always better. This one's even.
With all that broken down, here's my prediction for the game:
I predict I will fall off the wagon and start biting my fingernails again after three clean months.
I predict T Scott will yell "Three on the wayyyy...NOTHING BUT NYLON!" at least 8 times.
I predict my Fish Sandwich, Large Fries and Diet Coke from Don & Millie's will be tasty as all get-out.
I predict CBS's cameras will be showing the CU bench excitedly smiling at 3:55 pm.
I predict I will name Anthony Tolliver as the Polyfro Heee-Haw Player of the Game.
I predict the Jays will win 63-57.
You bet.
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