The last time Creighton played an NCAA Tourney game on a Friday afternoon? March 15, 2002 against Florida. You know how that ended.
I ate a fish sandwich combo with the upsized fries but a regular size drink at the Don & Millie's on 84th & Q that day for lunch, right before the game. You better believe I will be doing this pregame ritual this year -- even though its entirely out of my way to get to that particular D&M now that I work on West Dodge.
"OK, so you're driving 20 minutes to get to a D&M for lunch purely for superstitious reasons. But the real question is, does Creighton have a chance to win?"
ESPN would lead you to believe that they don't. ESPN is already salivating over a Nevada/Memphis second round matchup. ESPN is stupid, and ESPN is going to be disappointed...because Creighton is going to win this game.
Here's the Cliff's Notes version of why I believe Creighton wins.
Remember when Peter Gammons used to do "Diamond Notes" on SportsCenter in the early '90s? He would frequently say something like this. "IF Minnesota can get 200 innings from the perpetually horrible Freddy Tolliver, IF they can turn a collection of castoffs into .300 hitters, IF they can inflict food poisoning on the rest of the American League, and IF giving up more runs than you score suddenly means you win, the Twins can be a competitive team in the AL West. This is Peter Gammons...ESPN."
Lots of ridiculous "IF" statements. Hell, every year he made me think the Twins could be good IF 19 completely impossible things could somehow all happen.
So here goes.
IF Kyle Shiloh can play close to 100% and slow down Nate Funk, IF Anthony Tolliver gets in early foul trouble, IF Nick Porter reverts to Bad Nick and dribbles the ball off his leg six times a game, and IF Creighton misses more than they make, Nevada has a real chance to win this game.
That's a lot of ifs.
Now, to be honest, Nevada is a DAMN good team. They have the great big man, Nick Fazekas. They have the great perimeter shooting, led by Jaycee Caroll and Marcellus Kemp. All joking aside, I think there's really just one IF. If Tolliver gets in foul trouble and sits out half the game -- or is neutered defensively because of foul trouble -- Nevada will win by double digits. But if he stays in the game, it will be a barnburner, coming down to a couple of plays late to win. Whoever makes the big play will win a game like that; the classic March Madness photo finish. And I trust the Jays to make that big play. I really do. That's why if Tolliver stays in the game, I believe the Jays win.
Sure, Nick Porter putting the ball on the floor and driving inside to get Nevada in foul trouble -- and then knocking down free throws -- is big. Nate Funk continuing his man-possessed games from St. Louis is big. But keeping Tolliver on the floor to contest Fazekas is THE key.
You bet.
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