Before the season began, I was trying to talk myself into the idea that this year would be THE year. From the time I was 14 until I turned 25, I'd be delusional about the chances my baseball team, the Twins, had. I was absolutely convinced on an annual basis that a collection of old guy has-beens and young guy never-weres would somehow find enough left in the tank to make a run. These stiffs, of course, routinely lost 90 games despite my optimism, leaving me and about six other people interested in the team come September. But the next year, I'd be delusional again, believing THIS new collection of old guy has-beens and young guy never-weres would be different.
I'd like to think I'm older and wiser now, and beyond all that blind optimism and excited anticipation of a new season. By the end of writing that article, I'd given in to the hype and predicted a 27-4 record (10-0 non-conference, 14-4 Valley, 3-0 in the Valley Tourney).
You bet.
So here we sit on December 30, and instead of being 10-0, they're 6-4. 4-0 at home, 2-0 on a neutral court, and 0-4 on the road. They have the second-lowest RPI in the MVC at 83. The Jays are dead last in the MVC in field goal percentage at 40%, and dead-last in three-point percentage at 30%. Those are also-ran-type numbers, folks.
How did it get so bad, so quickly? Take a deep breath, because its time for the longest paragraph ever.
Nate Funk and The New Anthony Tolliver hadn't played together before, and its taken them 10 games to get comfortable on the court at the same time. Funk battled a virus, lost 15 points, then lost his shot, and is only now regaining form. Tolliver battled the PerimeterPostMan virus, and is only now recovering from the main side effect of that deadly virus: shooting three-point shots. Nick Porter's lack of consistent hustle has earned him a spot in the doghouse, and cost him his starting spot. Josh Dotzler didn't play in the first 2 games, worked himself into shape on the court, finally was playing close to 100%...and then broke a finger in Hawaii and will miss the next 3-6 weeks. Ty Morrison, the prize JuCo recruit expected to play big minutes as an athletic big man off the bench, fought Graves Disease, lost 30 pounds of mass and is still not 100%, and is so far behind in picking up the offense that his minutes are limited. Nick Bahe essentially hadn't played a game in three years, after red-shirting last year and spending the previous two years on the bench at Kansas, and is only now shedding the rust off his game. Manny Gakou was supposed to backup Tolliver, and while he is 50 pounds lighter, he still looks uneasy on the court and has failed to gain the confidence of the coaches to get meaningful minutes. Brice Nengsu has only averaged 90 seconds a game, and his contributions have been minimal. Pierce Hibma battled a deep thigh bruise, and upon his return, he became the public's choice for "Official Scapegoat" only six games into the season. The perimeter defense has been absolutely terrible, allowing Nebraska to shoot 67%, Monty Scott to nearly single-handedly beat them from behind-the-arc in Dayton, and Matt Lojeski to get 33 points on 12-15 shooting in Honolulu. The team is shooting its worst percentage from the field since Altman's first year in 1994.
Positives? True Freshman Isacc Miles has exceeded expectations, showing flashes of being a lock-down defender, a nice three-point shot, and has a 22-5 assist-to-turnover ratio when he plays point instead of the 2-guard. Dane Watts has been a beast on the boards, his field-goal shooting has improved, he's making free throws again, and he's been the most consistent Jay game in and game out.
Meanwhile, Wichita State has road wins at half of the Final Four from a year ago (LSU, George Mason) plus a win at Syracuse. Missouri State owns a neutral court win over then-#6 Wisconsin. Northern Iowa has blowout wins against Iowa and Iowa State. And Southern Illinois is, well, Southern Illinois. Hell, Bradley has shown flashes of their young players coming around. Drake is much better. Evansville is not good, and Illinois State is not good, and Indiana State is either not good or decent depending on who you ask. And Creighton, right now, on December 30, is arguably better than only Indiana State.
Is it really as bad as it seems?
Since the current postseason run began in the 1997-98 season, I was curious what Creighton's record heading into the Valley slate was. In many of those years, the MVC was only getting 1 bid to the NCAA Tournament, and because of the Jays start this year, they're now playing for the 4th and final MVC bid -- assuming Wichita State, Southern Illinois and Missouri State take the first 3 -- so this is a sorta-worthwhile comparison.
The 2001-02 team stuck out like a sore thumb:
2001-02
5-4 Non-Conference
Wins: North Carolina A&T, #17 Western Kentucky, Grambling State, Nebraska, Mississippi Valley State
Losses: at Texas Christian, at Brigham Young, at Western Kentucky, Xavier
Look familiar? Coming off a year in which Creighton went 24-8 and earned an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament for the first time, before losing a game many felt they could have won against Iowa in New York, the Jays were the odds-on favorite to win the MVC. Kyle Korver was a Junior and we were hearing rumors of improvement, Terrell Taylor was an exciting junior off the bench, Brody Deren was a big man transfer who promised to give big minutes in the 4. So what happened?
They started a disappointing 5-4. Even more eerily similar, they were 5-1 at home, including a big win over a ranked team. And they were 0-3 on the road at tough venues, prompting calls that the team was "soft" and "couldn't win on the road". Korver couldn't shoot anymore; Deren was a bust; Taylor was in the dog house.
Sound familiar?
You bet it does.
The Jays, in an admittedly weaker MVC, went 14-4 the rest of the way to tie for the Valley crown, and won the MVC Tourney. Then they beat Florida in the First Round in Chicago before falling to Illinois.
This season is far from over, folks.
The new season starts today, with the Missouri State Bears, on ESPN2. Win this one, win Monday against Illinois State, and start the snowball rolling. You bet.
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