A quarterfinal loss to Bradley had many Jays fans crying "The End Is Near!", and making plans for an NIT game at the Qwest. But lets consider some things before we get too disappointed. This team, after all of the injuries, scratched and clawed to 19 wins and a second-place finish in the sixth-best league in America. And all of that scratching and clawing left them broken down, gassed, and unable to finish the final game they needed to clinch a berth in the NCAA Tournament.
It sucks, sure, but until 5:30 on Selection Sunday, don't rule out a berth just yet. I think they've still got a better than 50/50 chance of being in. I will be happy to be wrong if they don't because dammit, I'm going to positive here and make a bold prediction: the Jays are in, along with:
Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State. Bradley stays home.
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Coming into the tournament, the Jays needed to win one game to assure themselves an NCAA tournament berth. They needed to beat Bradley. After that didn't happen, they needed Wichita State to beat Bradley on Saturday, and UNI to beat Southern Illinois. After neither of those happened, they needed a miracle. They got a SIU victory and one nail for their coffin.
They did not help themselves, and got no help from anyone else. In short, it was the worst possible outcome for the Jays.
But guess what? As we've seen over the past three weeks, without Josh Dotzler this is not a good team. Its a team of players unable to create shots, led by a point guard who makes bad decisions because he's really a "2" guard, of scrappy hustle players and below-average talent, and is backed up by dubious depth.
In short, its a team that does not look, feel or deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. They deserve to host an NIT game against Iowa State or Minnesota. And that's more than likely where they'll end up.
However, with Dotzler, this is the second best team in the Valley, at worst third. And from everything we know, he'll be back at almost 100% for potential NCAA games. If the committee takes that into consideration, we're looking at a whole new ball o'wax, folks.
Tomorrow, I'll try to dissect all the various scenarios and resumes of the teams CU is competing against for an NCAA Tournament bid. Because dammit, until the Selection Show is over and says CU is in or out, I'm holding out hope for an NCAA bid. We'll worry about the NIT if and only if it comes to that.
You bet.
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