Before heading out to watch the game on Saturday night, I had ESPN College Gameday on and the usually well-researched and respected Jay Bilas dropped the following line when talking NCAA tourney teams with the despicable Digger Phelps (don't even get me started on DP or things will get ugly in a hurry):
"I really think the committee is going to have to take a close look at these Valley teams. They need to determine how much their RPI's are artificially inflated by playing each other. I really think there's two teams, maybe three deserving out of there."
I think what incensed me more than anything was the intonation in his voice when he said "these Valley teams", almost as though they all had leprosy. Of course, his toeing the national media party line of saying the MVC only deserves two or three teams in the tourney was bad too. But the hypocracy of saying their high RPI's were the result of playing each other, and thus, articficially inflated their RPI's, was just too funny to imagine. For years this is what the Big Six have done -- play cupcakes in November and December, and let their league games raise their RPI. Why is this suddenly a bad thing, Jay, when a "little guy" does it? Please explain it to me, my email is listed below, Jay. Are you threatened by the thought of someone outside the Big Six possibly being as good as the Big Six? Wichita State, Missouri State, Creighton, oh my!
For years, ESPN, CBS and others in the media have touted RPI as indicative of who deserves to be in the tournament, and cited the MVC and others for not playing tougher schedules to increase their respective RPI (is it RPI or RPI's? Hmm, Ratings Percentage Index -- probably RPI's) since their league games would inevitably drag them down. Now that the Valley has done one better -- played tough schedules, won the games, and then made each other better in the league games, just like the Big Six -- this is suddenly "artificially inflating" your RPI? Gimme a break.
I always enjoy inducting new members into the "Polyfro Big Six Homers Hall of Fame", and inducting the previously respected Jay Bilas into it is something I didn't anticipate, but will do with no reluctance. Have fun with Rick Majerus, Dick Vitale, Doug Gottlieb and Billy Packer, Jay.
By virtue of his induction, I will no longer listen to anything he has to say about anything, and will not mention his name in this blog ever again, except to note he is a member of said HOF. Good times.
In any event, I kung-fu chopped the TV off, and headed out to see if the Jays could be one of Bilas' two or three teams to get in (sic).
Coming into Saturday, the Jays needed only a win or a SIU loss to clinch the #2 seed and a primetime matchup with a play-in opponent, and an almost assured trip to the semi-finals -- and by extension, an almost assured trip to the NCAA tourney. As you know, neither happened.
***
Saturday, the Jays headed to Springfield for the regular-season finale against the Missouri State Bears, and my friends and I headed to Stevie J's in Dundee to watch the game on FSN Midwest. The place was full of Creighton fans, and while I certainly cannot speak for all of them, the ones I spoke with shared the opinion that the $1 domestic draught beers did wonders to soothe the pain of a tough loss.
And make no mistake, this was a tough loss on a lot of fronts. The team played tough defense -- holding Missouri State to 37% shooting, and locking down sharpshooter Blake Ahearn until the end -- and the effort was fantastic against the hottest team in the league on their home court. The execution left quite a bit to be desired, particularly in the waning moments of the game, and the Jays just couldn't seem to make the plays needed to steal this one.
One of my buddies said to me repeatedly "Boy, Johnny Mathies is really playing terrible. He's costing the Jays this game." I bristled at this -- first of all, the Jays would not be in position to even care about a win at Missouri State without Johnny this year; and second, it didn't seem to me that he was playing all that badly.
A poster on the Bluejay Cafe message board (dnisblue) made some back-of-the-napkin notes that I'm totally going to borrow right now to prove my point:
First half when Johnny is on the bench
Sits from 14:05 to 11:55, Jays go -6.
Sits from 9:47 to 9:01, Jays go -5
Sits from 6:22 to 4:37, Jays +2
First half, Jays -1 overall, +8 with Mathies on floor, -9 with Mathies on bench.
Second half when Johnny is on the bench
Sits for 30 seconds at 12:02, 0
Sits for 30 seconds at 8:41, -3
Fouls out with 46 seconds left, 0
For the game Jays are -6, +6 when Mathies is on the floor.
Certainly, there's other factors that play in there, but Johnny Mathies was not the reason the team lost. He played well according to my high school JV-team trained eyes, as did Anthony Tolliver and Nick Porter. The teams were even all night, and in the final four minutes, Missouri State hit tough shots while the Jays missed their free throws (again -- guys, you're killing me!) and failed to get good looks. Its really as simple as that. Good win for Missouri State, congratulations on the 3 seed and a matchup with UNI.
***
There was a five minute period there after the game where I was inconsolable. But $1 draught Bud Lights do wonders for improving perspective and clearing one's thoughts.
I do tend to be a pretty optimistic fan, to be sure -- I'm the person who filled out a Tourney Bracket pool with the Jays winning the national title a few years back (its true) -- so despite a tough loss that drops the Jays into a tough quarterfinal matchup, I really believe they're still in good shape.
I made a bold prediction two weeks ago on this site that guaranteed a dance ticket for the Jays. I'm not yet ready to back off of that proclamation. My gut feeling is provided none of the bottom four pull an upset (Evansville, Illinois State, Drake or Indiana State), the semifinalists are all a lock for the NCAA's. Beyond those four, the rest are at the mercy of the committee and must hope for otherwise-out teams to not gain automatic berths in their conference tourneys.
Wichita State, Missouri State, Creighton and Southern Illinois, -- in that order -- are my picks to be those semifinalists and by association, the four MVC teams to get into the NCAA tourney.
Irate phone call from my brother Matt, a Northern Iowa alum, coming in 3, 2, 1...
I'm sorry, bro, but the Panthers have struggled down the stretch -- the injury to Erik Crawford hurt them more than most people realize -- and Missouri State will beat them on Friday. I hope they get in to the NCAA's, but I think realistically the MVC can hope for four bids and someone has be left out.
As I've mentioned all year, the brotherly-rivalry is so much fun with the emergence of UNI's program. He went to a few of the games with me this year, and would wear his Panthers sweatshirt every time just to needle me. The bastard. I banned him from my seats for the UNI game and banished him and his wife, also a UNI alum, to the upper bowl. And now I'm picking them to lose to Missouri State and miss the NCAA tourney. This is my not-so-subtle way of getting back at him, I suppose.
***
I'm not going to rip anyone on this squad. With the injuries they've been dealt, to be 19-8 is simply extraordinary, because they shouldn't be that good with what's left. Whether they go to the NIT or NCAA, whether they lose to Bradley on Friday or win the MVC Tourney, they've given max effort for 40 minutes damn near every night, and as long as you do that, I'll stand and applaud. Go Jays!
SIU beat Northern Iowa, and after the Jays lost they dropped all the way to the #4 seed -- and a 2:30 battle with the red-hot Bradley Braves and 7 foot stud Patrick O'Bryant. This is an extremely tough matchup. In the first meeting, the Jays got an old-fashioned whupping in a game in which effort, execution and even luck were all lacking. In the rematch, the Jays and Braves played a physical contest that had 3 technical fouls, numerous near-altercations and a close Jays win.
Since that meeting, the Jays have lost their starting point guard, and the Braves have finally gained sight of the ceiling for their immense talent. I've thought all year that Bradley had the best talent in the league, but Jim Les was a poor coach and their players just couldn't seem to play as well as they ought to be able to. Over the past 11 games, they've won 9 including a 25 point win on UNI's senior night. It will be a tough one. Stop back tomorrow for my thoughts on Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley and the Jays chances. Later this week, stop in for a close-up look at the Jays domination in St. Louis.
You bet.
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